Earlier this month I posted about the incredible change we have already seen in the eBook space in 2010. A colleague asked for some of my predictions for the rest of the year. This was my response:
1. A $99 eReader. Controversial I know, but device makers are pouring into the space and while $99 may not come until 2011, I would not be surprised at all to see it this year. If you are selling an eReader north of $249, it had better sing and dance, clean the house… and make a mean soufflé.
2. The $4.99 Bestseller. Yes, eBook prices are going up, but what happens when some pubs go agency and some don’t? Prices will be all over the map, and publishers and retailers will test all kinds of pricing schemes. We may also see a class action on pubs going with agency.
3. Amazon Launches the Super Kindle. Lab126 (Amazon’s holding company that makes the Kindle) is hiring enough hardware engineers to launch a smartphone, tablet, and a line of high efficiency home appliances. Are they making a SuperKindle? Thanks to the NYT’s Nick Bilton for starting yet another hype cycle for a device that doesn’t yet exist but will descend from heaven and make all our lives better.
4. eBook buyers are collectors too, only faster. We’ll see a growing population in the Millennium Club in 2010 (ebook readers with more 1000 ebooks in their libraries)
5. Google Announces Google Editions. Again. And (a picture of) a Tablet.
6. We will share our eBooks in 2010. Sharing our favorite books is a natural and essential practice. Customers expect it, we’re ready, we just need publishers to come to the table
7. Over 15 million new eReaders sold in 2010. My best guess is that 3-4m were sold in 2009, mostly by Amazon and Sony. Forrester guessed 6m for 2010, but from my perspective they are missing the mark by about 2.5x. New entrants will diminish Amazon and Sony’s share (and I don’t mean B&N).
8. By 2015, At least 50% of eBook sales will come from entrants that don’t even sell hardcopy books today.
9. The Google Book Settlement (G.B.S., let your imagination run with other meanings for the acronym) saga continues. World governments, competitors, authors continue to block Google Books Settlement.
10. We’ll look back at 2009 as the zenith of hardcopy book sales in America.
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A $99 eReader would have to have a “Columbia House” subscription-based model with it. The price of components is double that, and even with future economies of scale, $99 would practically mean a loss on the reader. This is akin to PS3s and the like, although Sony collects a licensing fee with each game – not so with books. You would “commit to purchase a book a month at our already low-low prices that average $24.95 per eBook (plus delivery fee). If you do not choose a book, one will be electronically uploaded to you based on your preferences,” and so on. I wonder if Columbia House is already working on one? I used to love those sheets of stickers, but I digress.
Kindle Addict, I’ll bet you $99.00 that we’ll see a $99.00 eReader sans “Columbia House” type plan by 12/31/11, as stated in prediction 1. New entries in the eBook hardware market are chasing down this exact goal. Moore’s Law has just discovered eBooks and eInk, this is ample time to see a dramatic shift in per-unit pricing. If it was not for the potential for high-inflation during the back half of this time period, I’d be willing to make the bet at $49.00.
I couldn’t agree more with your article. The prices will plummet once everybody gets in on it. There are many new technologies coming out or right around the corner for e-readers.
I also tend to agree with your speculation about book prices going down. In fact I could see authors just hiring editors to help polish their books and then publishing the content digitally themselves, thus keeping most of the profit. They could sell cheaply and still keep most of the money themselves.
Is anyone else out there hoping for a reader that’s simply a reader? (Although not only an reader — an entire library.) The one that’ll last you for ten years or more — a pleasingly palpable (bendy, suede-covered, perhaps) friend to take to bed, the park, on the train, maybe even in the bath; one that’s as appealing to hold as a warm paperback, as slim as a notebook (the old-fashioned kind) that tucks into a girl’s handbag or fits snugly in the palm of a man’s hand?
eBooks will continue to grow 2009 will be the Zenith of eReaders as all the hardcore book buyers already own one and the rest of us don’t read. Multi-function devices rule the day Amazon sells more Kindle editions to non-Kindle devices than to Kindles.
Samsung 5″ shows the future with sub $200 price point but less than 6k units sold.
How long will it be before we can take an e-reader into a library (or borrow a device) and borrow books for a limited time, just as we do now with physical books?
Jojo, A friend in the US pointed out to me a week or so ago that some libraries over there already loan ebooks. They are in ePub format, DRM’d and use the Abobe Digital Editions reader which allows for an expiry time to be specified. So, you download, read for 2 weeks and then discard.
As for hardware – I wouldn’t buy an iPad to read eBooks, the screen really isn’t good enough. LCD isn’t a patch on eink, apart from a better ability to show images, which isn’t relevant for most fiction of course. Ideally, I’d use a reader largely to hold reference material (I’m an IT geek) and that means good quality images in colour. That’s a way off yet, and even further for sub-$100. I won’t hold my breath, but I know it’s going to get there eventually.
Yes, Penelope, that sounds nice. Maybe I’ll have some kind of a tablet computer for everything else, but for reading I want a dedicated device. And I think there are plenty of lifetime readers out there who feel the same way. People like us won’t mind paying a bit more for the high-quality reader you describe.
I for one would sign onto a subscription service – though perhaps not the Columbia Book Club. Yann Martel’s “What is Prime Minister Harper Reading?” Or the “Every Man” Or “Modern Library?” Or a best of Canada/America/the World series from a respected editor?
Oh yeah. I’d definitely do that. In a heartbeat.
Here’s another prediction:
The iPad will in fact take off for ebook reading, but not with Apple’s app. The Kindle and Kobo apps will have better functionality and will use the device in their favor for selling more books than Apple will be able to.
I love your predictions and agree with most of them. Especially the one on “collecting books” and sharing them. Both are important facets of my book world.
One thing that sticks in my craw is the lousy software that we have to use to manage the content. Calibre is a good, not great alternative to the Sony software that I am obliged to use. This is an area that will need improvement before collecting and sharing become prevalent.
I’m not interested in a subscription service, I prefer to browse and buy whenever I’m in the mood or whenever I need a good read. The $9.99 price point makes purchasing books a no-brainer, higher than that would make me think.
I leave you with the not quite literal expression of the basic law of economics: “scarcity determines value.” With the advent of so many suppliers of ebooks the numbers available will grow exponentially and with the stimulus of competition for market share price will fall in direct proportion to numbers offered.
With the Kobo e-Reader hitting $150 that’s enough for me to bite on getting an e-Reader. Right now I use the Blackberry app. I will be the first amongst my friends to have an e-Reader.
I agree that $9.99 is the magic number for e-books. Anything above and I’m far more hesitant to purchase it.
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